The New York Fed sees no break in job postings
An analysis of Lightcast postings against an occupational AI exposure measure found that the decline in the most exposed occupations began before late 2022 and shows no separate break after ChatGPT.
Why it matters
The claim that AI is compressing hiring was tested by a central bank against posting data for the first time, and the effect is not there.
The post was published on 14 May 2026 by Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin and Giorgio Topa. The data is Lightcast job postings combined with an occupational measure of AI exposure, covering 2018 to 2025. Less than 10 per cent of workers and vacancies are in occupations with an AI exposure of at least 0.4, so the affected zone is itself narrow. The decline in postings for exposed occupations predates 2022, and the event study shows no clear additional break in trajectory after it. Labour demand for junior and senior roles within highly exposed occupations moves broadly in parallel, so the slowdown in entry-level hiring cannot be attributed to AI alone. The authors do not claim there will be no effect: they say the posting data does not show one yet.