The Fed finds no AI effect on job postings
A Federal Reserve Board note found no reduction in postings for industries or firms with higher AI adoption: the effects are positive and precisely estimated as null.
Why it matters
A second Federal Reserve measurement, this time by firm adoption rather than occupational exposure, reached the same negative result.
The note was published on 27 March 2026 by Jessica Liu and Douglas Webber. The data is Lightcast job postings from September 2023, the earliest date with complete Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey data, through November 2025. The conclusion is direct: there is no evidence of a reduction in job postings for industries or firms with higher levels of AI adoption. Models were run separately with adoption lagged by 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. At firm level the effects are positive and small, described as precisely estimated null effects; on an entirely causal reading they would imply that 2025 job postings rose by between 0.04 and 0.13 per cent because of AI adoption. The authors stress that the analysis is backward-looking, that the United States is at a very early stage of AI development, and that monitoring will continue.