Customs data points to three billion dollars of diverted chips
Epoch AI set China's and Malaysia's customs reporting against each other: China recorded about 3.75 billion dollars of server imports from Malaysia over 15 months, against Malaysia’s 0.6 billion of recorded exports, for nearly equal numbers of machines at values that differ sixfold per machine; Epoch puts the flow at roughly 150 thousand H100 equivalents.
Why it matters
Leakage of controlled hardware was measured in compute rather than in dollars, and it was done by setting two states' own reporting against each other.
The publication is dated 17 September 2026. Between April 2024 and June 2025 China recorded 3.8 billion dollars of server imports from Malaysia at an average of about 106 thousand dollars a machine, while Malaysia recorded only 0.6 billion dollars of exports to China. The 3.75 billion dollars is China’s recorded import value over the core window, not the difference between the two sides: Epoch says the two sides record nearly equal numbers of machines, 36,700 declared by Malaysia at about 17 thousand dollars each and 35,500 recorded by China at about 106 thousand, and so disagree sixfold on value; its headline figure is about 3 billion dollars. At AI server prices of 80 to 150 thousand dollars per unit, that flow corresponds to roughly 150 thousand H100 equivalents of diverted compute. The data is monthly customs records obtained directly through national statistical agencies' own APIs and data portals for the period January 2022 to June 2026, including China's General Administration of Customs and Malaysia's Department of Statistics, along with UN Comtrade and Singapore and Hong Kong trade records. Epoch presents the finding as trade data being consistent with smuggling rather than as proof of it.